While I pray not, it is a possibility that the US could invade Mexico, and obviously Cuba. I will not speak about Cuba here, as that is an entirely different scenario, for many reasons. But here’s my perspective on Mexico as a Chicano.
Is Mexico corrupted and its peoples compromised by the ubiquitous presence of the Cartels? Absolutely. Would the problem be solved with a US invasion? Absolutely not!
The supposed justification for invasion of Mexico is that it is the de facto gateway for much of the cocaine, meth, and fentanyl that comes into this country, and yes this is largely true and requires a solution, one that is not based on Iron Fist mentality, but rather that is both complex and nuanced in nature, as the problem is itself.
I”ve already written elsewhere about the origins of Fentanyl, being a drug owned and controlled at the levels of production by US corporate juggernaut Johnson & Johnson, who controls the patent. There are no generics! Just Johnson & Johnsons name brand. And the company has been profiting Billions yearly from its production, and by extension, off the deaths of Americas sons and daughters. It is also the same company that enjoyed the patent to OxyContin in the early 2000’s. So, if we want to address the root problem of the opioid epidemic, the blame should be placed on those ultimately responsible.
As far as Cartels are concerned, yes, they are a problem, and yes, they do deal with and profit from Fentanyl. Yes, the people would be better off without them, providing that the government itself was constituted by officials and a party or parties which truly represented the interests of the people. I believe that this exists right now under the Morena Party, which has done more for the poor and common Mexican than any government since the Presidency of Lazaro Cardenas in the 1930’s-1940’s. And this is the real threat to the US!
A prosperous, more equal, and just Mexican society, led by President Scheinbaum and the MORENA Party, and her successors, is the real problem. A Mexico that aligns itself with its Southern neighbors, rather than to sell out to its northern ones, is the real problem. A move by Latin America towards BRICS, this is the problem. A Mexico that denounces the kidnapping of a fellow head of state, and starving Cuba into submission, and which in the case of Cuba, has pledged to continue to send oil for humanitarian and fraternal reasons, this is the problem. A Mexico that is liberating itself from dependence and subservience to the US market, aligning itself with Canada and China for example, for access to capital, and that finds an ample market for its goods within the global supply chain, this is the problem. The possibility of a United Latin America, a regional bloc, similar to the European Union, to the exclusion of the US, this is a big problem! If you’re Empire!
There are two possibilities that I see from a US invasion. The first is the possibility to absolutely destabilize the country and create a scenario of anarchy and civil war. This of course is the objective, with the end game being mop up operations and a full-scale occupation.
But a more realistic outcome would be a unified Mexico, unified against a common enemy, unified amongst brothers and sisters whose national identity and shared culture and history, and in defense of the Motherland and their children’s children, would come to constitute a united majority, militant and defiant, a coalescence of Cartels, urban and rural guerillas, and federal and local military and police forces. The result would be a protracted guerilla war for survival. And in this, no conventional army has a chance–as Vietnam proved, as Afghanistan proved, as Gaza proved, even.
Speak Truth2Power!