Considering one week ago the likely Iranian response to a US-Israeli offensive, I figured the response would be immediate and overwhelming, a sort of Blitzkrieg. Certainly, Iran’s capacity to retaliate with an overwhelming response was widely known. All experts knew that they possessed tens of thousands of ballistic missiles in their arsenal, along with other long-reaching weapons such as guided one-way drones, again easily in the tens of thousands. In the face of these weapons, both because of their capabilities and their large numbers, Tel Aviv and local US assets, including the 5th Fleet and other Naval assets deployed, are completely vulnerable. I was expecting casualties of US forces in the thousands by Day 3.
Instead, we are seeing a bold yet calculated military response from Iran. Restraint is being used in order to prevent rapid escalation and the commencement of WWIII overnight. We have Iran to thank that the world is not in full blown war on this Sunday. And that thousands of mothers across this country are not already mourning lost sons and daughters.
Still, Iran is fighting for its existence, even though we’ve been told the whole time that it is because of Israel’s right to exist that Iran was the threat. And yet, in 45 years, not one preemptive military strike by Iran anywhere in the middle east, including Israel. This despite incursions and assassinations ins on Iranian soil, secret operations and sanctions aimed at fomenting division and instability. In the end, it was Israel and the US who proved to be the aggressors.
Some will say–oh but they’re the biggest sponsor of terrorism. Terrorism! In Gaza, where the people were suffocated by an immoral and illegal occupation, and mobilized as a People’s Movement, at the time popular with Israel and Netanyahu himself as being a counter to the PLO and Arafat? Or Southern Lebanon, as a RESPONSE to Israel’s war of aggression in the 1980s, and Hezbollah emerging as the de facto government after a Western-Zionist instigated Civil War? Or in Iraq AFTER the US invaded, establishing a permanent military on its Western border, at the same time that it had just done so to its Eastern border in Afghanistan, with the longstanding threats by Israel and many in the US, that Iran would be next?
In all these scenarios, Iran engaged by proxy, yes. But as we see now, it was in their own best interests, for the sake of national security, and as a deterrent. And generally, it was by the will of those such as the Palestinians, Lebanese, and Iraqis who looked to Tehran for help in resisting the advance of Empire, and from the vast majority of Iranians themselves. Was it not? What Would any reasonable government do in the face of such an external threat and imperial military presence in their backyard?
This is now looking like it could be a very long and obviously costly war–costly not only in terms of life, but actually dollars and cents when talking about sustained costs of weapons of war, and the destruction it reaps on a country’s infrastructure.
The question is not one of which country possesses the greatest destructive capacity. In this day and age, while it is easier than ever to press a button to unleash nuclear holocaust, or engage in indiscriminate carpet bombing, it is equally as difficult to get away with it in the critical realm of public opinion, particularly with social media. Instead, we are seeing a chess match unfold in real time. And it looks as though it could be a long one.
In the run up to the first shot fired, we were being told that this would not be a quick victory like Venezuela, but rather a WEEKS-LONG CAMPAIGN. WEEKS! THAT IS LAUGHABLE. This is going to be a long and, again, costly war. And the US and Israel stand absolutely zero chance of ever winning–unless the nuked Iran. Of course, the narrative of freeing the majority of Iranians from a tyranny they despise prevents such a climax, such a fate accompli. After all, if the cause is for the liberation of the masses, then there can be no justification whatsoever for a nuclear strike against those same masses.
In terms of conventional and unconventional warfare, it is my opinion that Iran possesses several strategic advantages, while also possesses both stockpiled supply AND the industrial capacity to sustain this war indefinitely. After all, the fact that its energy infrastructure and industry have not been affected–if it were, that would be front page news across the country–tells me that their defenses are strong enough that it wasn’t even a strategic target in what we were told would be shock and awe. Nor have we heard much of major damage of any significance to Iran’s military infrastructure, or many casualties outside of the assassination of some of its leadership, and the innocent ones who have been killed, including over 100 children.
This reality exposes the lies we were fed in the 12 Day War last summer, when all we heard was that Iran was, as a country, a sitting duck to be easily picked off by Israel’s air force. If Iran was defenseless, this thing would’ve been all but over by now. Or does anybody dispute this?
In sum, we must brace ourselves, but most importantly, resist however we are able–with our voices, with the pen, in the streets, in State Capitols and DC, through mobilization and organized resistance, ultimately, which is the only mitigating counter-response of The People with the capability to pressure a political and military retreat, outside of outright total. Military defeat. And this response must be swift, if it is to discourage additional actors on the global plane from engaging on the part of Empire, in other words to mitigate global escalation.
Speak Truth2Power!